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Post by merasmag on May 7, 2024 18:30:39 GMT -5
i can't find your post in the time i have congrats on your oaklawn achievement msd 100 a race over almost 600
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5wide
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Monmouth
May 7, 2024 18:27:49 GMT -5
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Post by 5wide on May 7, 2024 18:27:49 GMT -5
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Post by merasmag on May 7, 2024 18:20:46 GMT -5
so less for adw account holders that don't have cable? boo hiss America's Day at the Races is on youtube live. what's youtube live?
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Post by merasmag on May 7, 2024 18:05:46 GMT -5
devil's advocate here you saw i showed kerry thomas'es baffert blurb maybe he is JUST that good a horseman mayb he gets his horses (they're usually boys) to perform to the best of their abilities isn't that what we want/expect? so any1 that pays 200k to breed to justify is stupid if they don't understand that. THAT'S what bad for the breed AND merasmag---arguing for foal limits since 2005
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on May 7, 2024 17:45:21 GMT -5
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Post by mysaladdays on May 7, 2024 17:39:47 GMT -5
Justify won the Belmont and he’s the hottest sire on the planet . When I say I'm a traditionalist, by the way, that means that for me, a truly ELITE well bred thoroughbred has the ability to run fast but can also carry that speed. The reality that there are so many races at 5 and 6F and so fewer at route distances therefore, bothers me, going forward, which was more my point. As for Jusitfy's hotness factor with commercial breeders I already said I don't like the way our breeding programs are progressing toward the future. I might also say that I never (ever!) include Baffert horses in my pedigree anlaysis because so many of them just don't run to their breeding / numbers. Therefore requires a certain "suspension of belief" on my part and I have to use Baffert horses defensively on my ticket. His 4 instances of Nijinski was, however, was a good predictor that he might get that distance. So Justify can be hot as a glowing griddle but that year's Belmont came up weak. And it looked to me like he almost could almost have gone to the breeding shed partially lame. (Not exactly the future I want to see for any horse). Did anyone ever worry about how the chronic recurring bouts of fluid filling in his left ankle felt for him while being pushed throughout his TC campaign? Or that he was unable to ever run again after the Belmont? But you are certainly correct, he's being used in the breeding shed (like there's no tomorrow!), which, by the way, I also have a problem with, since it defies the orginal and more prudent idea that the jockey club used to have for how many matings a stallion should do per year. There was a limit that was lifted. He's doing double or triple what the recommended matings used to be. So much for "what's best for the horse." I guess excess is okay these days, in all things. I am not one who believes that way.
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Post by cherokeescot on May 7, 2024 16:53:16 GMT -5
Justify won the Belmont and he’s the hottest sire on the planet .
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Post by mysaladdays on May 7, 2024 16:31:08 GMT -5
So don't bother to enter your horse because all the things that should matter (to a traditionalist) in a true classic distance thoroughbred (as opposed to a quarter horse), not to mention durability and longevity in their sport.....are totally unimportant.
The durability and longevity aspect should worry folks. Most can't even run again after the KY Derby.
Indeed, this should leave no doubt that the ex Quarter Horse trainers have turned classic distance racing for TBs into something closer to QH racing, and commercial breeders have followed suit. Mature early, precocity, fast gate breaks, etc. but lacking in durabilty and longevity in their sport.
How do you even develop a fan base for horses who have no longevity in their sport? Breeding for 10F or 12F is but a distant consideration here. At a mere 10F they are weaving like drunken sailors in the stretch.
Bill Oppenheim's observation was correct: "The recent history of North American breeding is all about speed stretching out. But the history of the Kentucky Derby suggests that speed can stretch out to nine furlongs -- not 10 furlongs."
And the racing surfaces for classic distances are even groomed now for speed. The more asphalt-like speed highway on raceday, the better. Does anyone look at the way women's high heels don't even sink into the surfaces of the tracks on big stakes days when they are walking across them? Something I notice, being a woman.
Explains why well over 60% of our races carded are 7F and under, and Jockey Club Gold Cup and other races have been shortened. I remember Barry Irwin lamented about how we rarely see 9F or 10F maiden races anymore. (And why I made a case for T O Password for super high fiver players).
Will be interesting to see where our TB breeding program ends up 20 years from now. I'll take "quick return from precocious sprint distance horses" for 100, Alex."
So---- probably another almost 40 years to get a TC winner. The Belmont Stakes being our only remaining Grade I dirt race at 1-1/2 miles ...who is even going to bother to breed for that? We exile our Belmont winners to Venezuela, South Korea and Turkey. Stud fees for them here are dreary. The "true test of a champion" the 3rd leg of our (supposedly) hallowed and coveted Triple Crown, has absolutely no cache with U.S. breeders, owners or trainers.
And pedigree DOES matter. Unchecked inbreeding in TBs, to a narrowing population of "popular" broodmares and stallions is going to adversely affect the gene pool. Esp. combined with sending "bleeders" to the shed as well.
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Post by vagrant on May 7, 2024 15:33:17 GMT -5
>>>>They have pulled down the $94K+ superfecta type derby payouts more than once over the years.
That's extraordinary. I doubt they achieve such results by pedigree handicapping alone, but their study time was clearly a wise investment.
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5wide
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Post by 5wide on May 7, 2024 15:32:57 GMT -5
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eye123
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Post by eye123 on May 7, 2024 15:22:18 GMT -5
Thanks, my problem is that I always forget and after the race starts I'm scrambling to find my horse. Not if this guy is your horse
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5wide
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Post by 5wide on May 7, 2024 15:18:08 GMT -5
I keep going back and forth between " That's racing " and " WTF ? No Enquiry ? "
I heard that to protest would not have been a good look back in Japan. Damn them and their politeness. Sometimes you have to fight for your right .
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Post by mysaladdays on May 7, 2024 14:34:39 GMT -5
Another one I use (based entirely on pedigree) is "put the Tapit 4th". Works like a charm with Essential Quality, Tacitus, Mohaymen, Frosted, Normandy Invasion. And this year with Catching Freedom as the grandsire. Not using them as a key or even exacta has helped me.
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Post by mysaladdays on May 7, 2024 14:22:52 GMT -5
You are certainly right about a million ways to skin the handicapping cat. They left the rail open this year (dumb!) and Mystk Dan took that gift.
This year, like 2022, the "never (ever) lasixed" horses were the superfecta. That was $321K and close to $9K this year. People in my group won both, and are primarily pedigree cappers.
Your representation that they "get skinned" has not at all been my experience. Maybe you are talking about those who do a very shallow evaluation by just looking at sire and mare. The dedicated Pedigree cappers go much deeper than that.
As for turning noses up to the ones you mentioned, I really don't know where you got that. I've been on a group of ped cappers for 25+ years and all of the horses you mentioned were in their picks. Every single one. There are 2 people in my group have kept records of every combination of line breeding who won the Derby going back at least 30 years----meticulous records. They have pulled down the $94K+ superfecta type derby payouts more than once over the years. Those are the ones I learned from.
I am not just a speed figure capper because I don't make huge wagers, thus I would go home with empty pockets, since those horses ususally the Favorite/chalk. This is why I say over time, the speed figure players have never beat the game. It's a good short cut easiest way for weekend wearriors to cap a race w/out putting much effort thought or research into a race, and unless they are willing to go deep with an exotics wager tri or superfecta, they're going to win chalky payouts. Chalky payouts don't get you the bankroll you would need to stay in the game.
BTW, I even made a few posts about T O Password (because Master Fencer and Derma Sotogake), for the super high five players. Pedigree play.
Another interesting thing I've noticed is that while I haven't found the "final Q" or "final 3/8" figures to be utterly potent, I do find it very telling about which horses "have heart" though. The ones who run their hearts out seems to know where the finish line is.
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5wide
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Post by 5wide on May 7, 2024 12:06:18 GMT -5
Thanks, my problem is that I always forget and after the race starts I'm scrambling to find my horse.
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Post by cherokeescot on May 7, 2024 11:48:39 GMT -5
Here is the big race tomorrow. All the same weight. Program number in alphabetical order. Post position in parentheses after the program number .
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Post by spankyupinclass on May 7, 2024 11:35:55 GMT -5
Another Texan to b ashamed of
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5wide
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Post by 5wide on May 7, 2024 11:19:18 GMT -5
Speaking for the European contingent, we have lots of handicap races with horses carrying in some cases vastly different weights. So the top weight has always been allocated racecard #1 and so on to the bottom weight who might be #30 or even higher . After that there is a draw for post position similar to what happens in the US. So, once the entries are closed the program #'s are assigned by weight. I can see that for the Handicaps, but what about the 2000 guineas for example. Or say 3 horses all have the top or same weight , how do they decide ? Seems better to not have program #'s until the post positions are drawn imho. Rant over.
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tex
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Monmouth
May 7, 2024 11:10:46 GMT -5
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Post by tex on May 7, 2024 11:10:46 GMT -5
LoDuca was very good with his selections at OP. He is no chalk eating weasel either - gives out some good prices.
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Post by cherokeescot on May 7, 2024 10:25:58 GMT -5
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shoes
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Post by shoes on May 7, 2024 9:55:11 GMT -5
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shoes
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Post by shoes on May 7, 2024 9:54:21 GMT -5
About 35 years ago I put together a personal list to remind myself of the qualities to hone in on. Of course I lost this list about 30 years ago. All I can remember for sure is that the first item on this self-reminder list was :
1) The race goes to the swift (at a route).
I think I remember that fundamental, above all others, for very a good reason. Love the fact that Lil e Tee shows up on the list because it feels like that was a winner that was maligned a bit. It was an odd year in a way (1992). Arazi, whose truly breathtaking move in the BC juvenile at CD (which I was there for and the crowd gave a very audible reaction to, when he made the move), came in off just a 1 mile on the turf prep, and was wildly overbet. In addition, the best 3 year old that season (AP Indy) scratched the morning of the race. I had been planning on betting AP Indy for weeks leading up to the race, because I felt he was the best horse and would be a great value as a second in the odds horse. Fortuitously I had attended that years' Jeff Ruby, then called the Jim Beam at Turfway and had seen the horse win in person, making him a natural to pivot to. He also ran a very good second in the Arkansas Derby that year.
The win at 17-1 and 2 Exacta with Casual Lies (about 22-1) was a wonderful and lucky score for me. Lucky because I would have bet Ap Indy had he gone and even if he wins, it was probably in the 3-1, 5-2 area.
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on May 7, 2024 9:45:53 GMT -5
3 robin eggs in the nest, about 5 feet off the ground in dwarf spruce tree. Lot of chirping when the bulldog strays too close.
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Post by vagrant on May 7, 2024 9:09:43 GMT -5
Derby winners with top-3 Beyer figs in their fields:
Strike the Gold
Lil E. Tee
Go for Gin
Silver Charm
Real Quiet
Charismatic
Fusaichi Pegasus
Monarchos
War Emblem
Funny Cide
Smarty Jones
Barbaro
Street Sense
Big Brown
Orb
California Chrome
American Pharoah
Always Dreaming
Justify
Maximum Security
Mystik Dan
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Post by vagrant on May 7, 2024 9:02:01 GMT -5
Somebody has to win a 20-horse race, right? Does that alone make the winner exceptional? It does not. 150 horses have won the Kentucky Derby. Not all of them were exceptional.
As for the predictive power of speed figs, note that Mystik Dan owned the second-fast fig in the field -- Beyer and ThoroGraph. So maybe there's just a little predictive power there.
But I wasn't talking about a prediction. Mystik Dan earned a 100 Beyer. That's a fact. Actually, I was kind to the critter by calling him ordinary. 100 is below average for Derby winners -- i.e., sub-ordinary.
The predictive power of pedigree handicappers has been roughly nil for more than a quarter-century. They turned their blue noses up at Real Quiet, Charismatic, Fusaichi Pegasus, War Emblem, Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Big Brown, Super Saver, California Chrome, Maximum Security and Medina Spirit. They touted purple-bred slowpokes like Saarland and Tapit and Friesan Fire and ... the list is endless. Also penniless.
But there are a million ways to skin the handicapping cat. Or get skinned.
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shoes
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Post by shoes on May 7, 2024 8:55:30 GMT -5
Congratulations, well done!
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Post by thebobtailnag on May 7, 2024 8:25:37 GMT -5
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5wide
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Post by 5wide on May 7, 2024 7:59:28 GMT -5
so less for adw account holders that don't have cable? boo hiss America's Day at the Races is on youtube live.
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on May 7, 2024 6:31:40 GMT -5
I really enjoyed the last two posts. Nice start to the day.
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on May 7, 2024 6:23:07 GMT -5
Congrats. Could not have been easy with all the wet tracks during the meet.
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