Beyer Superfecta

That 101 that Dan had threw me for a loop. I stared at it all spring and ignored it because it was on a sloppy track.
Steve

Every year there is some "angle" that works. Other years, not so much. No way am I ever going to base my picks in a classic distanc race on speed figures. That's just me.

About 35 years ago I put together a personal list to remind myself of the qualities to hone in on. Of course I lost this list about 30 years ago. All I can remember for sure is that the first item on this self-reminder list was :

1) The race goes to the swift (at a route).

I think I remember that fundamental, above all others, for very a good reason. Love the fact that Lil e Tee shows up on the list because it feels like that was a winner that was maligned a bit. It was an odd year in a way (1992). Arazi, whose truly breathtaking move in the BC juvenile at CD (which I was there for and the crowd gave a very audible reaction to, when he made the move), came in off just a 1 mile on the turf prep, and was wildly overbet. In addition, the best 3 year old that season (AP Indy) scratched the morning of the race. I had been planning on betting AP Indy for weeks leading up to the race, because I felt he was the best horse and would be a great value as a second in the odds horse. Fortuitously I had attended that years' Jeff Ruby, then called the Jim Beam at Turfway and had seen the horse win in person, making him a natural to pivot to. He also ran a very good second in the Arkansas Derby that year.

The win at 17-1 and 2 Exacta with Casual Lies (about 22-1) was a wonderful and lucky score for me. Lucky because I would have bet Ap Indy had he gone and even if he wins, it was probably in the 3-1, 5-2 area.

So don't bother to enter your horse because all the things that should matter (to a traditionalist) in a  true classic distance thoroughbred (as opposed to a quarter horse), not to mention durability and longevity in their sport.....are totally unimportant.

The durability and longevity aspect should worry folks. Most can't even run again after the KY Derby. 

Indeed, this should leave no doubt that the ex Quarter Horse trainers have turned classic distance racing for TBs into something closer to QH racing, and commercial breeders have followed suit. Mature early, precocity, fast gate breaks, etc. but lacking in durabilty and longevity in their sport.  

How do you even develop a fan base for horses who have no longevity in their sport? Breeding for 10F or 12F is but a distant consideration here.  At a mere 10F they are weaving like drunken sailors in the stretch.

Bill Oppenheim's observation was correct: "The recent history of North American breeding is all about speed stretching out. But the history of the Kentucky Derby suggests that speed can stretch out to nine furlongs -- not 10 furlongs."

And the racing surfaces for classic distances are even groomed now for speed. The more asphalt-like speed highway on raceday, the better. Does anyone look at the way women's high heels don't even sink into the surfaces of the tracks on big stakes days when they are walking across them?  Something I notice,  being a woman. 

Explains why well over 60% of our races carded are 7F and under, and Jockey Club Gold Cup and other races have been shortened.   I remember Barry Irwin lamented about how we rarely see 9F or 10F maiden races anymore. (And why I made a case for T O Password for super high fiver players).  

Will be interesting to see where our TB breeding program ends up 20 years from now.   I'll take "quick return from precocious sprint distance horses" for 100, Alex."

So---- probably another almost 40 years to get a TC winner. The Belmont Stakes being our only remaining Grade I dirt race at 1-1/2 miles ...who is even going to bother to breed for that?   We exile our Belmont winners to Venezuela, South Korea and Turkey.  Stud fees for them here are dreary.   The "true test of a champion" the 3rd leg of our (supposedly) hallowed and coveted Triple Crown, has absolutely no cache with U.S. breeders, owners or trainers.

And pedigree DOES matter.  Unchecked inbreeding in TBs, to a narrowing population of "popular" broodmares and stallions is going to adversely affect the gene pool.  Esp. combined with sending "bleeders" to the shed as well.     

When I say I'm a traditionalist, by the way, that means that for me, a truly ELITE well bred thoroughbred has the ability to run fast but can also carry that speed. The reality that there are so many races at 5 and 6F and so fewer at route distances therefore, bothers me, going forward, which was more my point.


As for Jusitfy's hotness factor with commercial breeders I already said I don't like the way our breeding programs are progressing toward the future. I might also say that I never (ever!) include Baffert horses in my pedigree anlaysis because so many of them just don't run to their breeding / numbers. Therefore requires a certain "suspension of belief" on my part and I have to use Baffert horses defensively on my ticket. His 4 instances of Nijinski was, however, was a good predictor that he might get that distance.

So Justify can be hot as a glowing griddle but that year's Belmont came up weak. And it looked to me like he almost could almost have gone to the breeding shed partially lame. (Not exactly the future I want to see for any horse). 

Did anyone ever worry about how the chronic recurring bouts of fluid filling in his left ankle felt for him while being pushed throughout his TC campaign? Or that he was unable to ever run again after the Belmont?  

But you are certainly correct, he's being used in the breeding shed (like there's no tomorrow!), which, by the way, I also have a problem with, since it defies the orginal and more prudent idea that the jockey club used to have for how many matings a stallion should do per year. There was a limit that was lifted.  He's doing double or triple what the recommended matings used to be. 


So much for "what's best for the horse."   I guess excess is okay these days, in all things.  I am not one who believes that way. 

Justify could have raced again. Coolmore wouldn't allow it. Clearly they made the right call because the horse prints money these days.

In what way was Justify's Belmont weaker than average? It's always a top-heavy race with medium-sized fields. 

>>>But the history of the Kentucky Derby suggests that speed can stretch out to nine furlongs -- not 10 furlongs."

How so? The race is still 10 furlongs and a handful of horses every year handle it fine. Most don't, but that's always been the case. 

The elite colts, who knows what their durability limits are? Nearly all are retired after their 3YO seasons. 

Justify won six races in five months, including a certain trio in five weeks. That's not durable?  

From DRF.

Justify’s Beyer Speed Figures from the Triple Crown were a 103 in the Kentucky Derby, a 97 in the Preakness, and a 101 in the Belmont Stakes.

"Justify could have raced again. Coolmore wouldn't allow it. Clearly they made the right call because the horse prints money these days".


“Justify had some filling in his ankle, and he is just not responding quick enough for a fall campaign,” Baffert said in a WinStar Farm statement. “We all wanted to see Justify run again, but ultimately it is my responsibility to make sure he is perfect. Without 60-90 days, I can’t be definite.”

Since i am a put-the-horse-first person, all of that has to be weighed against "at what cost to the horse?"  I am also more an advocate of the TB breed itself.. not the breeders.

Baffert's record is deplorable in the put the horse first aspect, which is why he is having "reputation problems".  

My expectation is that Young Horses survive their training regimens, and also don't have shotened lifespans when they finally do leave racing as a result of their careers and/or over-the-top mating/shuttling duties.

Justify's duties as a sire are already way over the top. Many opinions, mabe not good for gene pool, maybe we should put not breeding bleeders  toward top, mabe breed for more durabilty, longevity, stamina, ect.  Lots of diff opinions on all that.  I am looking ahead, 20 to 30 years as to the fruits of our breeding program.  Will we even have many races left at 1-1/4, 1-1/2, or will any horses be able to run again much after attempting such?

What ever happened to this? Hes probably at 2x or 3x the suggestion

www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/235617/the-jockey-club-exploring-book-size-limits

Thoroughbred racing hasn't been a sport of kings in a very long time. Kings being people for whom money is no object and greed isn't the goal. But it's been the Sport of Speculators since Robert Sangster came on the scene 50-ish years ago.

Speculators want a fast score, so they value speed and precocity. They've shaped the breed with their quick buck ethos. Good or bad, that's just how it is.