mysaladdays
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Post by mysaladdays on May 7, 2024 0:08:44 GMT -5
Mystik Dan is an ordinary horse who ran an ordinary race. I could be down about this race, as this was the closest I have come in a number of years to winning the Derby superfecta, since if you look I built my bets around Forever Young, Resilience, Catching Freedom, Dornoch and Sierra Leone. Mystik Dan was missing. I disagree with you, as Mystik Dan isn't ordinary at all. He beat 20 horses in a race. 1) If speed figures were so predictive then Fierecenss would have won. I confidently left him off my ticket entirely. There are many ways to cap a classic distance race but with horses trying to do something they've never done before, it requires more than one approach, IMHO. So, classic distance races are not won by speed figures alone. (anymore). (If that were true, Andy wouldn't have one of the most dreadful records for picking KY Derby winners. His personal biases also hurt him, as during the BCC when he declared he was leaving Zenyatta completely off his ticket. Despite that she won the 1st one, and ran 2nd in the 2nd BCC, against the best males of her generation that year. He took his synth grudge too far and it was precisely because it wasn't a surface he could handicap, plus I remember he didn't like her connections.) Once I see personal biases creep in to an analysis I can never again take that person's thoughts as being sound. 2) Breeding: I have found ped head's approach refreshing from the standpoint that they are not trainer or jockey "worshippers". They only look at the horses. They're the only group in my travels who I know had both Mine That Bird (potent derby female family 23-b) and Rich Strike, for instance, posted publically on forums or in their analysis if they had a social media site. The engine room of the mare side is back in the 4th generation, which most traditional cappers don't tread. While Goldencents didn't have a great classic pedigree, his mare side was not shabby. .....the point is that it's another tool in the toolbox. Bill Lathrop (Modern Conduit Mares), Tesio, etc. knew a lot about the female side and many of their theories are useful today. It certainly helped me toss Just a Touch off my ticket entirely. Timeform had him in the tri. If there was ANY horse in this race I literally thought would run last it was Just a Touch. He failed every single pedigree angle I have in my aresenal. Breeding is ultra important in the KY Derby and so are some specific things that horses must have. I mostly used Bill Lathrop's theories on that one, since I went all the way back to Fu Peg. His book is out of print now, but a pedigree query subscription will give you the tesio mare side numbers which are helpful if you know how to use the profiles. 3) Kerry Thomas's idea that horses are individuals with very distinct emotional and psychological makeups is prescient and eye opening. He doesn't give you the winner , but doesn't claim to. Unlike so many services who charge big bucks telling you they can deliver. A perspicacious trainer who trains with those traits in mind, toward the goal of winning this specific race would be well advised to keep on doing so, i.e. what makes his horse "tick". 4) I talked to 3 friends who had Mystic Dan. And they did not pick him based on "possible wet track". They have much more interesting observations having to do with his workout, training, and time off schedules. If you look at those before the SW and before the AR Derby part of the answer lies there. 5) The Derby is a chaos race, with horses trying to do something for the first time. In the long run though, its all about the TRIP and nobody has a crystal ball to know for sure who will get that. There is also a lot of luck involved. 6) Mystik Dan beat 20 horses in the KY Derby and the history books will reflect that. Not 1 or 2 or 12....but 20. Connections also made a very generous donation to Thoroughbred Aftercare. Win/win The only problem I had this year was that CD never even lighted the inquiry sign, and for that, I may not play the race again in coming years. I can't get behind the way the stewards dealt with this. The purse between 2nd and 3rd place was substantial enough to "matter."
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Post by merasmag on May 6, 2024 23:20:50 GMT -5
NYRA Bets sponsoring a race in New Jersey, where NJ residents can't bet using their platform. We're stuck with TVG's 4NJBets only. ass-backwards except for the 1%
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propro
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Post by propro on May 6, 2024 22:55:18 GMT -5
NYRA Bets sponsoring a race in New Jersey, where NJ residents can't bet using their platform. We're stuck with TVG's 4NJBets only.
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Pet peeve
May 6, 2024 22:19:55 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by cherokeescot on May 6, 2024 22:19:55 GMT -5
Speaking for the European contingent, we have lots of handicap races with horses carrying in some cases vastly different weights. So the top weight has always been allocated racecard #1 and so on to the bottom weight who might be #30 or even higher . After that there is a draw for post position similar to what happens in the US.
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TV
May 6, 2024 22:07:28 GMT -5
Post by merasmag on May 6, 2024 22:07:28 GMT -5
i ventured out 2day and was immediately accosted by a "friend" asking if i won
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Post by merasmag on May 6, 2024 22:05:49 GMT -5
so less for adw account holders that don't have cable? boo hiss
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Post by merasmag on May 6, 2024 22:04:01 GMT -5
becuz they do their draws differently?
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Post by merasmag on May 6, 2024 22:02:20 GMT -5
oh NO! lol
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5wide
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Pet peeve
May 6, 2024 22:01:56 GMT -5
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Post by 5wide on May 6, 2024 22:01:56 GMT -5
This has to to with the Rest of the world. I think the US is the only country that has it right. Why are post positions and program #'s different. Really why ?
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Post by merasmag on May 6, 2024 21:56:22 GMT -5
lol only logging in 4 this ALWAYS PLAY THE SPANKSTER!
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Post by triguy237 on May 6, 2024 20:28:43 GMT -5
Great contest! Thank you cherokeescot for your time and energy! We have a great group of people here. Congrats Ozzy!
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Post by triguy237 on May 6, 2024 20:26:09 GMT -5
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Post by vagrant on May 6, 2024 20:04:27 GMT -5
That's reasonable and likely in some respect true. But I think if you look back, Beyers in general -- and for spring 3YOs in particular -- dropped in 2009, when certain kinds of steroids were outlawed in the wake of Big Brown.
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on May 6, 2024 19:46:56 GMT -5
Good to hear.
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Post by cherokeescot on May 6, 2024 19:20:55 GMT -5
Thanks for doing this ,Michelle .
Good to hear that the Spankster is still. ….
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Post by PonyGirlJCM on May 6, 2024 18:37:19 GMT -5
I called Spanky today as he has been MIA for a bit…..he told me that he is….
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on May 6, 2024 18:30:15 GMT -5
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on May 6, 2024 17:57:42 GMT -5
I think this quote is about 4 years old. Plausible?
So why have speed figures in the Triple Crown series and the Kentucky Derby prep races been so low? I can offer a theory. For most of the Derby’s history, fitness and racing experience were essential for success on the first Saturday in May. Horses almost always had a solid foundation of experience as 2-year-olds. (Secretariat raced nine times at 2. Carry Back made an astonishing 21 starts as a juvenile before he went on to win the 1961 Derby.) Three-year-olds came into the Derby ultra-fit. Whirlaway ran in two major stakes in the nine days before the 1941 Derby—a common practice at the time.
In the modern era, of course, training styles have changed. Talented young horses are raced sparingly. They have short 2-year-old campaigns and may race only two or three times as 3-year-olds before the Derby. Their final prep race may be scheduled four or five weeks before the Derby (an unthinkable idea for old-time trainers). Justify was unraced at 2 and made only three starts prior to his sweep of the 2018 Triple Crown. He was a brilliant talent, but with so little experience he couldn’t have been expected to run as fast as great 3-year-olds of the past had done in the spring classics. That’s the reason his figures in the Triple Crown were so low—103, 97, 101. –Andrew Beyer
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5wide
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Post by 5wide on May 6, 2024 17:35:16 GMT -5
I dropped $5 on MD on Wed thinking it was going to rain. So broke even for the race. Would have had the ex too if FY ran 2nd
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tex
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Post by tex on May 6, 2024 17:24:42 GMT -5
There should be more of a firestorm for him staying second and not being put third - forget the fact they never put up an inquiry. Really bad look to the Japanese sportsmen who came over to participate at great expense . They were not treated fairly or justly. Those that say it was only racing and it was back and forth are rationalizing. The margin was a head bob - not a length. Nobody wants a DQ but if that was the 3rd race they would have looked at it and probably change the order. Trying to make it go away and rationalize it just makes it look worse and sounds weak. I hope the Japanese continue to send their horses over and do not hold a grudge.
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Post by cherokeescot on May 6, 2024 16:45:20 GMT -5
Same stewards as Churchill ?
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Post by cherokeescot on May 6, 2024 16:44:35 GMT -5
I agree but he did save us from an absolute firestorm if Sierra Leone had nosed out Forever Young and stayed up !
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Post by oriolesteve on May 6, 2024 16:31:56 GMT -5
That 101 that Dan had threw me for a loop. I stared at it all spring and ignored it because it was on a sloppy track. Steve
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Post by vagrant on May 6, 2024 15:03:31 GMT -5
Stone is the best in the biz right now, imo.
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Post by vagrant on May 6, 2024 14:56:40 GMT -5
Apologies to Dell and Mystik Dan's other backers, but I was hoping that a special horse or special performance would make Derby 150 a special occasion. Didn't happen. Mystik Dan is an ordinary horse who ran an ordinary race. Props to Dan for seizing a golden opportunity -- rail trip, slow closers -- but I suspect he'll prove a pretty forgettable Derby winner. Him and his dreary 100 Beyer. 20,000 foals and that's the best spring 3YO America can produce? Not good. Japan might indeed start handing us our lunch fairly soon.
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propro
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Post by propro on May 6, 2024 14:46:59 GMT -5
What a massive screwup. They claim on the live video they're going to pay the correct order of finish after originally paying off the incorrect order of finish that was made official. It was pretty clear #6 Antares at 4-1 beat out #3 Spankster (17-1) for the place, yet 2-3-6-7 was posted AND made official!!
Original payouts....
2 - 4.20, 2.80, 2.20 3 - 9.60, 3.40 6 - 3.20
$1 exacta 2-3 $40.70 $.50 trifecta 2-3-6 $88.40 $.10 superfecta 2-3-6-7 $45.86
So what happens to the people that bet this electronically? The track said they had stopped paying out the original payouts, but what if they've been already paid online?
Updated payouts....
2 - 4.20, 2.60, 2.20 6 - 4.00, 3.20 3 - 3.40
$1 exacta 2-6 10.70 $.50 trifecta 2-6-3 63.85 $.10 superfecta 2-6-3-7 $35.05
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ozzy
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Post by ozzy on May 6, 2024 13:57:12 GMT -5
I wouldn’t have benefited in any way but I felt it was racing, plain and simple. FY comes out on SL earlier off the turn and entering the stretch with only the slightest of contact, maybe a couple of times early into the stretch as well. Very true SL did lug in and bump FY but also felt FY leaned out on him as well but have not dissected the reply. Again felt the give was as good as the get therefore no change warranted.
Unsure about the touch…. Sure looks like something from this photo but can’t tell definitively from the angle. That would have by rule warranted a DQ but if the connections have no issue, why should we? The hop at the start was a bigger issue for FY than anything else that occurred in costing him in my opinion. He ran a tremendous race, much better than I ever expected, as did TO Password. Much respect to the both of them!
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Post by Badactor on May 6, 2024 13:47:23 GMT -5
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Post by cherokeescot on May 6, 2024 13:09:58 GMT -5
Congratulations to our 2024 UpInClass OPEN Champion, Ozzy! And thank you again to the amazing cherokeescot for running the game... I know what it takes to run this competition and you are truly appreciated! PS. I got a birdie on the 18th contest hole. Actually both you and Grommett had eagles (-1) as Mystik Dan was greater than 10-1 🙌
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5wide
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Post by 5wide on May 6, 2024 12:58:42 GMT -5
If you boxed the top 5 Beyers, including the estimated 101 for FY. You had the super.
No more hours of handicapping needed. Fierceness 110 fy 101 MD 100 Sl 98 Cf 97
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